BY TYLER BRIDGES

 In demanding the ouster of Miami Police Chief William O'Brien and then firing City Manager Donald Warshaw last week, Mayor Joe Carollo has sacrificed support among African-American and white non-Hispanic voters while gaining new favor among Cuban Americans, political analysts say.

 In doing so, they contend, Carollo has added to the ethnic and racial tensions in Miami.

 The mayor did not return phone calls Saturday. He has said in past interviews that politics had nothing to do with his actions.

 Carollo has said he fired Warshaw because he mismanaged city government. He cited Warshaw's failure to fill two key financial jobs in the administration. The mayor also noted questions raised last year about Warshaw's use of a credit card provided by a nonprofit group while he was police chief.

 ''How can this community keep a manager that would not have survived in any other city of America since September of last year?'' Carollo said late Friday, referring to reports of the credit card incident.

 And the mayor has said he is angry with O'Brien because of the police department's role in the federal raid to seize Elian Gonzalez and the exile demonstrations that followed.

 But many observers believe Carollo fired Warshaw and sought O'Brien's dismissal for political reasons.

 ''He is playing to his Cuban constituency,'' said Jim Corey, a political science professor at the University of Miami.

 Carollo split the Cuban-American vote in the 1997 mayor's race against Xavier Suarez but lost ground among them afterward as he engaged in political fights with several popular Cuban-American officials, said Dario Moreno, a pollster and political science professor at Florida International University.

 Before the Elian Gonzalez saga began, Carollo had a positive rating of only about 40 percent among Cuban-American voters in Miami and a negative rating of about 30 percent, with the rest undecided, Moreno said. Carollo was more popular among white non-Hispanic voters, he said.

 Pollsters say a positive rating below 50 percent in the dominant voting bloc usually means a politician is in political trouble. Carollo is up for reelection in November 2001.

 DRAMATIC COMEBACK

 Cuban-American voters make up about 55 percent of Miami's voters on election day, while African-Americans are 21 percent, white non-Hispanics are 17 percent and non-Cuban Hispanics are 5 percent, said pollster Rob Schroth.

 Moreno said Carollo's stock among Cuban-American voters began to rise before the raid as he used frequent television appearances to strongly support keeping Elian in Miami and to denounce Fidel Castro.

 But when Carollo visited Elian's home an hour after the predawn raid on April 22, many of the people there booed and heckled him, apparently thinking he might be responsible for the seizure.

 A few hours later, the mayor began sharply criticizing O'Brien for failing to inform him of the impending raid and began complaining that one of O'Brien's assistant police chiefs, John Brooks, had accompanied the federal agents. Carollo said he wanted Warshaw to fire O'Brien, a move the city manager refused to take.

 Carollo increased the pressure on Warshaw in succeeding days.

 At 9:30 a.m. Thursday, the City Commission was supposed to hear from about 100 Cuban Americans who had come to City Hall to complain about police force against street demonstrators. Commissioner Wifredo ''Willy'' Gort, who chairs the commission, announced that Carollo had asked him to postpone the meeting until 6 p.m.

 CHARGED CROWD

 That afternoon, Cuban radio stations called on their listeners to attend the City Hall meeting. By 6 p.m., the commission chamber, which seats 125 people, was full, and hundreds more lined City Hall's lobby and the parking lot outside.

 When Carollo walked into the chamber, most of the crowd stood and gave him a rousing cheer.

 In that charged atmosphere, Carollo announced he was firing Warshaw but said it had nothing to do with the raid and its aftermath. Instead, he said, Warshaw had not kept him informed of city events and had failed to name a new budget director and financial director.

 ''It was clearly calculated and timed to hold the hearing at the time when the massive demonstration was at its peak,'' said City Commissioner Arthur Teele Jr., who had urged Carollo earlier not to act against Warshaw.

 As a sign of the changing times, Carollo shook hands with Commissioner Tomas Regalado, his bitter enemy. They had not shaken hands in nearly two years.

 Carollo's move against Warshaw disgusted Commissioner Johnny Winton, the only non-Hispanic white on the commission.

 ''It was like the Spanish Inquisition,'' Winton said later. ''There's never a reason to publicly humiliate people who work for you.''

 EMBARRASSED EX-AIDE

 Along with denouncing Warshaw, Carollo called a former aide, police Maj. John Buhrmaster, to the microphone and asked if he had anything he wanted to say publicly to the mayor. A baffled Buhrmaster said no. Carollo then repeated his question. A still baffled Buhrmaster again said no.

 A day later, Buhrmaster said, ''I felt humiliated to be disgraced in front of my employees and my friends watching on TV.''

 When Carollo left City Hall at about 10:45 p.m. Thursday evening, Cuban Americans outside applauded and called out, ''We love you, Carollo!''

 During Saturday's rally on Southwest Eighth Street, many demonstrators yelled pro-Carollo statements. Several people said ''Carollo for president.''

 However, Carollo's move against Warshaw infuriated many white non-Hispanics and African Americans who had supported the mayor.

 ''I'm terribly disappointed in the mayor,'' said Tucker Gibbs, a white non-Hispanic lawyer in Coconut Grove who defended Carollo in court this year against efforts to cut short his term in office. ''He destroyed any credibility he had in my community. A whole segment of the community feels like they don't matter.''

 Bishop Victor T. Curry, a prominent African-American leader, on his radio show called for a recall petition drive against Carollo. Teele said he counseled Curry afterward against a recall effort, saying it would strengthen the mayor by inflaming ethnic and racial passions.

 A predominantly white non-Hispanic group gathered in Peacock Park in Coconut Grove Saturday also called for a recall drive, as did a crowd in South Miami-Dade.

 'THE RIGHT THING'

 Former mayor Suarez said he agreed with Carollo's decision to fire Warshaw but said the mayor shouldn't have done it in such an incendiary way.

 ''This was the right thing done by the wrong person in the wrong manner,'' said Suarez, who plans to run against Carollo next year. ''Most of the problems we're having can be attributed to Carollo and his demagoguery.''

 Former mayor Maurice Ferre also was sharply critical of Carollo.

 ''This is not the time to look for confrontation,'' Ferre said. ''This is the time to look for quiet and peace and to bring people together. Carollo is the kind of guy who tears down bridges. He's not a person who builds bridges.''

 As a sign of the anger at Carollo, someone hung a banner above the doors of City Hall Friday night that read, ''The Banana Republic of Miami.''

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald