The Miami Herald
March 31, 2000
 
 
Penelas put himself into prominent spot with tough talk

 BY KAREN BRANCH

 With fire in his voice, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas -- a fast-rising 38-year-old
 wunderkind of the National Democratic Party -- riveted national TV audiences with
 defiant words Wednesday against the federal government's handling of the case of
 6-year-old Elian Gonzalez.

 ``If their continued provocation in the form of unjustified threats to revoke the boy's
 parole leads to civil unrest and violence, we are holding the federal government, and
 specifically Janet Reno and the president of United States, responsible," Penelas said.
 ``It is very clear that we will not lend our respective resources -- police or otherwise
 -- to assist the federal government in any way, shape or form to repatriate Elian
 Gonzalez to Cuba."

 They were harsh words words for a politician who's made no secret of his future
 ambitions for higher office one day.

 Penelas portrays his statements as politically risky both in the long run and for
 his more immediate future in a fall reelection bid.

 Indeed, the mayor said of about 400 calls to his office since the news conference,
 sentiment was running ``60 percent against his position."

 ``I would say probably it won't be helpful to me, because if you look at where the
 broader community is on this issue, most people believe Elian should be returned
 to his father," he said.

 ``It's not about politics. It's about how you feel."

 But observers believe the strong words only boosted Penelas against a strong
 challenger, Miami-Dade Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla. Both are
 Cuban-American and popular among Hispanic voters who make up the largest
 voting bloc in the county -- 43 percent.

 ``It plays very well here," Penelas campaign spokesman Ric Katz said.

 CHALLENGER AGREES

 The challenger didn't argue with his political foe on this one.

 ``I think that's a reasonable position,'' Diaz de la Portilla said of Penelas' plan.
 ``There are going to be some things we agree on, and this is one."

 The effect is less sure elsewhere. Nationwide polls have shown sentiment
 strongly in favor of returning Elian to his father.

 But still, observers say, Penelas' position and strident words still aren't likely to
 hurt him in the national spotlight unless the Elian saga ends with violence.

 ``If there isn't damage, if there isn't death, if things can get resolved, there will be
 very little national repercussions," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a Los Angeles-based
 political consultant and senior associate at California's Claremont University. ``If
 there is, it may not be so easy for him."

 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a University of Pennsylvania political science professor
 based in Washington D.C. said she was ``stunned by an MSNBC report featuring
 Penelas' statement."

 RISK OF VIOLENCE

 If violence erupts, Tenpas believes clips of Penelas' statement will be prominently
 featured in opposition ads for his future campaigns.

 On the flip side, however, is the immense amount of publicity that has focused on
 Penelas now. And most say that will only help him in his ambitions for higher
 office, whether people agree with his position or not.

 ``I know a lot of candidates for national office who would have paid $5 million for
 the amount of air time that Alex has received on national television in the last 24
 hours," Washington, D.C.-based pollster Rob Schroth said.

 ``It isn't his stand what people will remember," said political science Prof. Carol
 Kohfeld of the University of Missouri in St. Louis. ``It's his name. They'll forget
 what side he was on.''

 Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida,
 said Penelas has another issue on his side: Many states with large immigrant
 populations can relate to criticism of the federal government.

 ``The average person on the street loves to see someone take on the federal
 government," MacManus said. ``You take California, Texas, Arizona, Florida,
 where resources have been hurt by the federal government's failure to implement
 its own policy, so in that respect, challenging the federal government could be a
 good."

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald