BY JOSEPH TANFANI
In seeking an answer to the Elian Gonzalez impasse, veterans of
volatile crisis
negotiations say their best advice for Janet Reno is to take
a deep breath, back
off from the brink -- and keep talking.
Even as the situation seemed hopelessly frozen on Thursday, with
Elian's Miami
relatives insisting they will never turn over the boy, several
experts say the
government shouldn't give up on a settlement. There may yet be
a better solution
than federal agents going through an angry crowd in Little Havana
to grab Elian,
they say.
``The government is going to have to show infinite patience,''
said Clinton Van
Zandt, a retired FBI agent who once served as the bureau's chief
hostage
negotiator and now owns a Virginia consulting firm. ``We've got
a line in the sand.
That doesn't mean we have to cross the line. This really calls
for reason.''
Van Zandt, a veteran of the Waco standoff and the prison riots
of Cuban
detainees, said he would try bringing in a respected leader like
Auxiliary Bishop
Agustin Roman as mediator.
During a critical juncture in one prison standoff, Roman came
to say Mass and
suggested that the detainees throw down their weapons, defusing
the crisis.
``There were Cubans en masse throwing knives and spears over
the top,'' Van
Zandt said.
Roman said Thursday that the church should only get involved as
mediator if the
family asks for help. That hasn't happened.
RIGHT APPROACH
Seasoned hostage negotiators say Reno seems to be taking the right
approach:
patience and offers to keep talking, backed by a firm insistence
that the Miami
relatives ultimately must follow the law.
``You don't get discouraged. You're always thinking: Is there
some angle, or some
person we can use that potentially could have influence?'' said
Robert J. Louden,
a retired New York detective who supervised the New York Police
Department's
hostage negotiation unit. He now heads the criminal justice center
at New York's
John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
``You don't have a script,'' he said. ``As time goes by, people's
resolve changes,
people's thoughts change.''
The first tactic of negotiating is to move the argument away from
an all-or-nothing
debate. So far, there seems to be no possible middle ground for
Elian Gonzalez --
he either stays in Miami or returns to Cuba.
Still, compromise might not be a lost cause, experts say.
William Monning, a conflict resolution expert at the Monterey
Institute of
International Studies, suggested an arrangement where Elian could
return to Cuba
but spend summers in Miami -- ``Something so when he leaves,
it's not the end
forever.'' Or there could be some agreement that the boy could
become a U.S.
citizen and return when he becomes an adult.
``You could break down some of the absolute nature of the distance
between
Cuba and Miami, for this family,'' Monning said, noting that
might be impossible
given the hostility between the two governments.
``Part of what the Miami family needs is to save face as having
stood up for what's
right for Elian,'' Monning said. ``That's what the government
needs to be able to
offer them.''
`NO MAGIC TIME'
How long should the government wait before sending marshals to take Elian?
``There's no magic time,'' Louden said. ``If you think there's
a glimmer of hope that
the individual inside would listen to your reasoning, you keep
going.''
If there's no deal, experts say, the government must start with
the lowest possible
show of force -- unarmed agents walking up to the house and asking
for the child.
That's just what marshals have in mind, as a last resort.
``Very up front and businesslike. You knock on the door, almost
like Joe Friday,
say: `You knew we were coming, and here we are,' '' Louden said.
```We would
like you to help us do this.'''
Louden and Van Zandt said it would be disastrous to stage a surprise
operation to
grab the boy at night. Federal authorities have promised not
to do so.
``The last thing we need are American law enforcers going in like
jackbooted
Nazis or Castro's storm troops,'' Van Zandt said. ``Whatever
is done has to stand
the light of day.''
Herald staff writers David Kidwell and D. Aileen Dodd and researcher
Elisabeth
Donovan contributed to this report.
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald