BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER
QUITO, Ecuador -- After his first 100 days in office, Ecuador's
president Gustavo
Noboa -- the country's fifth president in the past five years
-- is trying to make the
most of his two biggest assets: not being a politician and having
a reputation for
honesty in a country ravaged by corruption.
The big question is whether that will suffice to get oil-rich
Ecuador out of its
economic and political bankruptcy.
Noboa, the little-known former vice president who took office
after a Jan. 21
military coup, has done better than expected so far. But not
many people are
betting that restless army colonels with links to belligerent
Indian leaders will
allow him to finish his term in 2003.
``I'm like the members of Alcoholics Anonymous: I take it one
day at a time,''
Noboa said in a one-hour interview at his office. ``This country
is unpredictable,
and I'm trying to get it to recover hope.''
One thing he won't do, he says, is abandon the presidential palace
if there is a
coup, as his former boss Jamil Mahuad did in January. Asked what
he would do,
Noboa became serious and said, ``They [the coup plotters] will
have to take me
out of here dead.''
Noboa, 62, who was installed by Congress after the coup, is a
former university
rector with little charisma and without the speaking skills of
some of his
predecessors. But many people describe him as honest and without
illusions of
grandeur, which would be a novelty in this country's recent history.
Other analysts note that his lack of a political constituency
could become a
problem in coming months, as he carries out a much-needed economic
belt-tightening program that is already generating increasingly
belligerent street
protests by radical Indian groups.
``If he makes it through July, I will give him a grade of eight
on a scale of one to
10,'' said Rosalia Arteaga, who was Ecuador's president for less
than a week in
1997. ``Right now, I give him a six.''
LOWERING TENSIONS
One of Noboa's most controversial measures has been proposing
an amnesty for
the populist colonels who led the January coup.
Asked whether this won't set a terrible precedent, Noboa said,
``I think it will lower
tensions in the country. It will lower tensions among the armed
forces' hierarchy,
and among the Indians who were linked to the coup plotters. Ecuador
needs a
peace process.''
Critics say Noboa's proposed amnesty is an invitation to a new
coup, because it
leaves open the possibility that a military court will allow
the imprisoned colonels
to rejoin the army. Most of them were military academy lieutenant
colonels who
are due for promotion next year, and would thus be entitled to
command troops.
Noboa said Ecuador has gone through so many traumas over the past
five years
that there is ``an impressive lack of governability'' that needs
to be addressed.
He added that the country has had several other amnesties in the
past, including
two for former President Abdala Bucaram and one for army officers
who plotted
against former President Leon Febres Cordero. ``Why were those
amnesties
good, and this one bad?'' he asked.
On the economy, he is going ahead with Mahuad's last-minute plan
to adopt the
U.S. dollar as Ecuador's official currency, in an effort to guarantee
stability. Last
year the value of Ecuador's sucre plummeted and the country was
headed for
hyperinflation. Dollarization was a desperate measure to keep
that from
happening, he said.
``On Jan. 22, there weren't many other options. If you rewind
the videotape and
look at the events of that day, you will see that we had to make
decisions at 7
a.m., after not having slept more than half an hour in the previous
24 hours.
``If we hadn't taken the decision to dollarize, the currency would
have soared to
50,000 sucres to the dollar within a day.''
While Ecuadoreans complain that prices have gone up sharply in
recent months,
the exchange rate has remained stable at 25,000 sucres to the
dollar since
Noboa took office.
The president said he will not cave in to Indian activist groups
who oppose
dollarization and planned cuts in government subsidies for gasoline,
which sells
for between 45 cents and 75 cents a gallon.
``The problem is the politicization of the Indian leadership,''
Noboa said. ``They
want to take the government for themselves, and this is no secret.''
ELECTION ROUTE
He stressed that ``while a respectable group, the Indians do not
represent all of
Ecuador'' and ``must understand that if they want to take power,
they have to win
elections.''
Indian leaders say they represent 40 percent of Ecuadoreans, but
some
academic studies put the figure of the indigenous population
at 17 percent.
Noboa said he is sending a delegation to the United States this
week to seek a
renegotiation of Ecuador's debt, and has ambitious plans to open
up state-run oil
and telecommunications industries to the private sector.
``We all know that this year will be difficult, and that between
now and December
we will have problems,'' he concluded. ``But I'm optimistic.
Things will get better.''
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald