BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER

 The Ecuadorean armed forces' ouster of President Jamil Mahuad is generating
 fears among U.S. diplomats and academics that Latin America's two-decade-old
 shift toward democracy may have peaked, and that the region may revert to its
 old mode of military-controlled regimes.

 Ironically, it was Ecuador that led South America's march to democracy in 1979,
 when a military government called free elections. Peru, Argentina and virtually all
 other South American countries followed suit and elected civilian governments.

 ``This may be the first successful military coup against an elected government
 since the '70s,'' said Michael Shifter, a senior analyst with The Inter-American
 Dialogue, a Washington think tank, after Ecuador's top military commander
 demanded Mahuad's resignation Friday. ``It shows that when political institutions
 don't work, and there is a severe economic crisis, the one institution waiting to
 take over is the military.''

 While democracy in Latin America has tended to come and go in cycles, few
 experts anticipate a domino effect leading to the return of old-fashioned military
 juntas. In fact, efforts by Ecuador's top military commander to install a National
 Salvation Junta on Friday night fizzled in a matter of hours amid strong
 international protests, and Vice President Gustavo Noboa was put into office.

 But many experts fear a trend toward more subtle forms of military control, such
 as military-controlled civilian governments. Noboa owes his job to the armed
 forces' ouster of his predecessor and is likely to be controlled by them, they say.

 POLITICAL SHIFT

 The ebbing of Latin America's democratic wave may have started in the late
 1990s, when -- amid growing dissatisfaction with democratic governments and a
 massive rise of common crime in the region -- many countries elected retired
 military leaders who promised a ``strong hand'' to cure their nations' ills.

 Bolivia elected former military ruler Gen. Hugo Banzer in 1997. The next year,
 Venezuela elected former coup leader Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez -- who proudly wears
 his military uniform and has appointed acting military officers to top government
 jobs -- and last month Guatemala elected Alfonso Portillo, who is seen by many
 as a front man for former military leader Gen. Efrain Rios Montt.

 In Peru, the military looms large behind President Alberto Fujimori's 10-year-old
 government. In Paraguay, former coup plotter Gen. Lino Oviedo is seen by part of
 the opposition as the country's biggest hope.

 Some experts warn against speculation that Ecuador may set a new trend toward
 open or behind-the-scenes military rule. They say Ecuador is probably South
 America's most politically immature country and will thus have little impact on
 more mature democracies in the region.

 INTERNAL RIVALRIES

 With the latest change of government, Ecuador has had six presidents in the past
 four years. A feudal business elite and a historic rivalry between the country's two
 political strongholds, in Guayaquil and Quito, has made it virtually ungovernable,
 they note.

 ``Ecuador is the worst country I've ever seen in terms of narrow partisanship,'' said
 Michael Skol, a former senior U.S. State Department official in charge of Latin
 American affairs. ``When it comes to the notion of nationhood as opposed to
 personal interests, I doubt that there is another Latin American country that is as
 cannibalistic as Ecuador.''

 A 1997 poll across Latin America conducted by Latinobarometro, sponsored by
 the Inter-American Development Bank and the European Union, showed that
 Ecuador was the Latin American country with the lowest regard for democracy.

 Only 41 percent of Ecuadoreans agreed with the statement that ``democracy is
 preferable'' to other forms of government, as opposed to 86 percent of
 Uruguayans, 75 percent of Argentines, 50 percent of Brazilians and 44 percent of
 Paraguayans.

 `ISOLATED CASE'

 ``Ecuador is an isolated case,'' said Jennifer McCoy, director of the Carter
 Center's Latin American program in Atlanta. ``But the larger trend of
 dissatisfaction with the performance of democracy is a serious matter that has
 contributed to a growing role of the military in Venezuela, Peru and Guatemala.''

 Regardless of whether Ecuador's events set off a new wave of military rebellions in
 the region, experts say there is little question that it will have a negative impact
 on the region's image.

 ``It creates an image of instability, which is not what investors are looking for,''
 McCoy said. ``Every added thing that happens in any of the countries in Latin
 America builds toward a large image, especially in the wake of uncertainty over
 what's going on in Venezuela.''

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald