Latin America's Main Markets Mirror Nasdaq's Bumpy Ride
By JENNIFER L. RICH
SÃO PAULO,
Brazil, April 27 -- With the Nasdaq oscillating
sharply this
month, Latin America's two principal markets, the
Bovespa of Brazil
and the Bolsa of Mexico, have gone along for the ride.
Emerging markets
have always been buffeted by instability in the United
States as anxious
investors pull out of what are considered high-risk
positions elsewhere.
But because Latin American markets have been
dominated by
brick-and-mortar companies, they have usually been
linked to the
Dow, not the technology-heavy Nasdaq. This new
relationship
has confounded investors, particularly now that the Brazilian
and Mexican
economies are booming.
Since the beginning
of the Nasdaq swing, the Bovespa index has
dropped to 15,440,
after rising to a high of 19,046 in March. In Mexico,
the Bolsa index
has fallen to 6,844, from a high of 8,417, also in March.
Some of the
current downward pressure can be directly linked to the
market in the
United States.
"It was Nasdaq
euphoria that fueled the markets in the fourth quarter,"
said David Chon,
Latin America equity strategist for Bear, Stearns.
"After running
up significantly, some of the froth is now coming off of the
telecom-media-technology
sectors."
Indeed, the telecommunications
sector, which makes up about 50
percent of the
Bovespa, has led Brazil's downward trend. The shares of
CRT Cellular,
for example, which is controlled by Telefónica de
España,
fell from a high of 899 reais ($499.20) in March, to 609 reais at
today's close.
CRT is one of the cellular companies in Brazil that plans to
start wireless
Internet services by June.
"The telecom
companies are all earning revenue from the Internet," said
Julio Zeigelmann,
director of equity funds at BankBoston Asset
Management in
São Paulo. "It makes sense that decreasing optimism in
the Internet
would affect us locally." In Mexico, Teléfonos de Mexico has
also taken a
hit, closing today at 28.4 pesos (3.01), 22 percent below its
52-week high
of 36.2 pesos on March 7.
But since technology
is still a nascent industry in Latin America, most
companies --
including telecommunications concerns, which are still
trying to meet
demand for regular fixed-line service -- are still squarely
part of the
traditional economy. That makes for a tenuous connection
between Latin
American stocks and the Nasdaq.
"This correlation
doesn't have much logic," said Octavio de Barros, chief
economist of
BBV Argentaría in São Paulo. "When the market realizes
that the Bovespa
is not linked to the Nasdaq, we could have a rally."
Many companies
in Latin America, and particularly in Brazil, are
undervalued
now that stock prices have fallen, with many trading below
book value,
according to many analysts. They say that the flight to quality
that normally
occurs during market turbulence should reverse once the
value of Latin
American stocks becomes widely known.
Quarterly reports
released this week have also animated investors. On
Tuesday, for
example, the Mexican cement company Cemex announced
that operating
profit rose 22 percent in the first quarter compared with
the 1999 quarter,
beating analyst's expectations. The positive news
follows impressive
results announced last week by the Brazilian steel
company CVRD,
which increased profits 98 percent in the first quarter
over the comparable
period last year.
The earnings
reports followed positive economic news coming out of
Latin America.
Since the Russian debt crisis in 1998 sent investors
running from
Latin America and forced Brazil to devalue its currency, the
region has had
a quick recovery. Latin America is expected to grow 3.7
percent this
year, up from 0.2 percent last year, according to estimates
from ING Barings.
Inflation has
also shown some decline this year. The region should finish
the year with
inflation at 6 to 8 percent, compared with 8.8 percent last
year. The International
Monetary Fund recently revised its inflation target
for Latin America
this year to 7.7 percent from 8.4 percent on strong
economic activity
coming out of the region.
Brazil's Congress
also recently passed important legislation, the Fiscal
Responsibility
Law, which establishes austere spending and indebtedness
limits for the
local, state and federal governments. The Brazilian
government has
been battling large deficits for years, and indebtedness
was a primary
cause of investor uncertainty in the devaluation last year.
The budget deficit
now stands at 3.6 percent of the country's gross
domestic product,
but with the new law and the economic recovery, the
government expects
the deficit to fall to about 2 percent of G.D.P. in
2001.
In Mexico, investment
activity, which has been strong this year because
of ties to the
United States through the North American Free Trade
Agreement, is
expected to slow before the presidential election
scheduled on
July 2.