Provinces key to Argentine fix
IMF officials are now in Argentina demanding that governors trim spending and stop printing money.
By Colin Barraclough | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
BUENOS AIRES - Argentina has a big obstacle in its path to economic recovery. Actually, 23 big obstacles.
The struggling South American giant's loose federal structure puts most
of the nation's spending power in the hands of the 23 provincial
governors. Historically, the governors have acted like lords over their
fiefdoms, spending with abandon, printing their own currencies, and
doling out the cozy jobs to cronies. This has often created massive debt
and crippling inflation.
Whether or not Argentina's federal government can reverse 200 years of
history and bring reform to this free-wheeling culture may determine
whether the country sinks or swims. Four representatives from the International
Monetary Fund are here this week demanding that
governors trim spending and stop printing money as conditions of restoring
bail-out funds.
Last December, the IMF suspended funding after Argentina failed to meet
previously agreed upon spending reduction targets. That decision
forced the country to default on $141 billion in foreign debt, and led
to deadly riots and five presidents in two weeks. Since taking office in
January, President Eduardo Duhalde has repeatedly sought to persuade the
IMF to help his country's crumbling economy.
But pivotal to any deal is whether Argentina's federal government has the strength to influence the governors.
History of free-wheeling
At independence in 1810, rural landowning strongmen, or caudillos, resisted
control from Buenos Aires. As a result, Argentina's
Constitution vests great powers in provincial leaders. In the 19th century,
presidents got what they wanted by ruling with the sword, in some
cases literally. These days, however, the executive is obliged to rule
by consensus, and can only cajole governors into falling in line.
"Since the beginning of the Argentine republic, each province has functioned
as an independent political unit," says Julio Burdman, director
of research at the New Majority Studies Center, a political research group.
"The federal government has little power to impose its will on the
provinces."
Argentina's provincial governments collect, on average, only 35 percent
of the money they spend – the poorest provinces rarely collect more
than 10 percent – and get the rest from federal taxes that are apportioned
out and sent to the provinces. The system works if the provinces
limit spending to the money coming in. Should the provinces overspend,
however, the government is left footing the bill.
Between 1995 and 2000, spending in the provinces rose by 25 percent, even
though inflation was nonexistent. The spending binge forced
the government to build up an unsustainable volume of external debt. "There
is no federal oversight, none at all," says Mr. Burdman. "The
provinces do not collect taxes, but they spend without control. They have
total autonomy and no responsibility."
The results are predictably ridiculous. "Inconsistency and poor planning,
at all levels, have become ingrained over many years," says Diana
Mondino, managing director of Standard & Poor's in Argentina. "In education,
which is decentralized, there are more teachers per class
than average in some schools and no teachers at all in others. Or two bridges
will be built over one river, and none over the next."
Corruption, too, plays a part. The local media frequently uncovers instances
of provincial officials awarding contracts at inflated rates to
business associates, or giving jobs to family members or political allies.
In the impoverished province of Formosa on the country's northern border,
about half of all formally employed workers are on the government
payroll, and media investigations have demonstrated that many show up only
once a month – to collect their paychecks. The 30 provincial
legislators themselves each collect a whopping $12,000 a month in salary.
To add to the mess, federal tax collection is woefully inefficient: the
government estimates value-added tax (sales tax) evasion at 40
percent and income tax evasion at 50 percent.
Until recently, this waste was hidden by a stream of foreign capital and
loans, particularly as Argentina opened up to investment during the
1990s under President Carlos Menem. Since the default, Argentina's credit
rating is in the tank and foreign investment has all but dried up.
With the economy in free fall - it's expected to contract by 15 percent
this year - provinces literally printed money to pay state workers.
They issued some $1.75 billion in public bonds, equivalent to almost one
in every two pesos in circulation, that quickly became de facto
currencies.
The IMF has pressed Duhalde to either impose federal control over provincial
spending, or press provinces to collect taxes and pay their
own way. They are also pushing for the retirement of the 20 unofficial
currencies now circulating in the provinces.
"Argentina should put together an economic plan that's coherent and consistent,"
says Francisco Baker, the IMF's spokesman on
Argentine issues. "They need to bring down the deficit in the provinces
and stop using the so-called funny money they've been using."
New get-tough stance
IMF insiders say its stance on Argentina's provincial elite is part of
a get-tough policy ushered in by a new management team. The Bush
Administration has also said it is in favor of more crisis prevention and
fewer bailouts. IMF officials say that a 10 percent cut in spending by
each province would translate into a 60 percent reduction of the federal
deficit.
Duhalde, who was himself accused of using poverty-relief to buy votes as
governor of Buenos Aires province, has floundered for solutions.
The president is urging his former gubernatorial colleagues to voluntarily
cut payrolls. But with unemployment at 20 percent and rising fast,
the governors are stalling.
"The IMF is asking the government to use its federal power to exert some
control on the provinces," says Burdman. "The federal
government is, in effect, replying 'We can't do it. You do it for us.'
"
Despite rising social chaos in Argentina's towns and cities, the IMF team
appears determined to see real reform. "The IMF view is that if
Argentina's political class can't get it together, then so be it," says
a senior Western diplomat. "They'll come in afterward and pick up the
pieces."