By TAD SZULC

                       WASHINGTON--The ultimate irony of Fidel Castro's
                       economically failed socialist revolution is that it has provided
                      fertile soil for a restoration of capitalism when the Cuban leader is
                      gone.
                      The 72-year-old Castro commemorated his 40th anniversary in
                      power yesterday. But the promise of his wildly popular guerrilla
                      triumph over Gen. Fulgencio Batista has gradually faded and given
                      rise to a frequently heard question: "After Fidel, what?" Much will
                      depend, of course, on how the Cuban transition develops and how
                      the United States behaves at the moment of change.
                      There is, naturally, the danger that a resurgent capitalism may turn
                      out to be corrupt and destructive for the more than 11 million
                      Cubans. For now, however, the immediate concern is how and
                      when Fidelismo might end, peacefully or violently. The issue is no
                      longer whether the Castro regime will be transformed, reformed or
                      liberalized. As a practical proposition, this has ceased to be relevant
                      in Cuba, just as Fidelismo itself has ceased to matter to most of the
                      world. Attention is now centered on what may replace it. But it is
                      pointless to guess what might force Castro's disappearance: natural
                      death, assassination or a coup from within?
                      The reality, meanwhile, is that Cuba is already evolving away from
                      Fidelismo. The evolution began, almost imperceptibly, some years
                      ago, but the significant turning point was Pope John Paul II's trip to
                      the island last January. The visit had been conceived by the pope as
                      a long-term proposition aimed at creating an environment conducive
                      to a slow, but inevitable, succession.
                      There are those in Cuba--and Washington--who dismiss the
                      pontifical initiative as a failure because Castro is still in power. They
                      underestimate, however, the pope's sense of history, just as others
                      did in the cases of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union 10 years
                      ago. Every transition requires a catalyst, and the pope was one
                      when he visited Cuba.
                      With the exception of Francisco Franco in Spain and possibly
                      Augusto Pinochet in Chile, no dictator in recent history has
                      prepared his country for transition from tyranny to democracy
                      through gradual political and economic liberalization. Castro
                      formally designated his brother, Raul, now defense minister and the
                      Communist Party's No. 2 man, as his successor--quite different
                      from preparing succession in the usual sense. But it is simply
                      impossible for Castro to transfer the personal support he still
                      enjoys as a legendary revolutionary chief and a figure of enormous
                      charisma to the deeply disliked and stunningly uncharismatic Raul. If
                      Raul, himself 67, attempts to don his brother's mantle, Cuba risks
                      immense perils, even the threat of a civil war, when rival factions,
                      including Cuban exiles from Florida, face off in a power struggle.
                      Castro may well be aware of this state of affairs. His talent for
                      survival stems, in large measure, from his uncanny ability to adapt to
                      changing circumstances and exploit them. From his first
                      imprisonment for attempting a coup in 1953 to the Cuban nuclear
                      crisis in 1962, from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 to the
                      current Cuban economic disaster, Castro has succeeded because
                      he was one jump ahead of the game. Accordingly, he may now be
                      contemplating a non-Raul solution to save what is left of his
                      revolution and his place in history. This may explain Castro's
                      remarkably deferential attitude toward the pope in Havana, his small
                      but steady concessions to the Roman Catholic Church and his new
                      dark-suit international diplomacy.
                      Only two institutions in Cuba are efficiently organized and enjoy
                      widespread respect: the highly professional armed forces, which
                      were never part of the repression apparatus and have clean hands,
                      and the church, whose prestige and influence grow daily. In all
                      likelihood, the transition from Castro will be guided by these two
                      institutions, in conjunction with a small group of Castro's key
                      advisors, whose hands are also clean and who may be vital in
                      assuring the continuation of the national administration, domestically
                      and internationally. Together, they would constitute, in effect, a
                      provisional government designed to guarantee public order, assure
                      new freedoms and rebuild the shattered economy.
                      The economy and Cuban living standards are indeed in an appalling
                      state. National economic performance has dropped 38% in the last
                      five years, and there are no prospects for improvement. Sugar
                      production, Cuba's principal source of wealth, may fall this year to
                      2.5 million tons, from an annual 7 million in the 1980s; spring floods
                      and autumn droughts nearly ruined the sugar industry, and the sharp
                      drop in world sugar prices has further reduced Cuba's export
                      earnings. The country hosted 1.7 million foreign tourists last year,
                      but this alone cannot offset the ruin in other economic sectors.
                      The armed forces are deeply involved in the economic crisis. Not
                      only do they witness the hardships of their unemployed,
                      underemployed and undernourished families, but Castro handed
                      them responsibility for running most of agriculture and much of light
                      industry and services, such as tourism. Gen. Ulises Rosales del
                      Toro, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and Cuba's most powerful
                      man after the Castro brothers, now heads the sugar ministry.
                      Castro is striving to defuse mounting social tensions, which now
                      include frequent protest demonstrations in the streets, often in front
                      of courts where opposition militants are tried, most recently on Dec.
                      10. Castro's concessions mainly have been to the church and
                      religion, but are inevitably given a political spin.
                      Cardinal Pio Laghi, in charge of Catholic education worldwide, flew
                      from the Vatican to Havana last June to urge more teaching in
                      church schools, a taboo until recently. In September, 10,000
                      Cubans marched in the streets of Havana in a procession led by the
                      image of Our Lady of Charity, the patron saint of Cuba, an event
                      that last occurred 30 years ago. In November, the regime allowed
                      19 foreign Catholic priests and 21 religious workers to assist Cuban
                      churches and institutions. There are now 305 Catholic priests on the
                      island, a number unmatched in 40 years. On Dec. 1, the regime
                      announced that, henceforth, Christmas Day would be celebrated as
                      a national holiday.
                      One may well wonder whether these religious concessions signify a
                      loss of government contro. When they are coupled to the
                      skyrocketing black market in everything, toleration of a dollar
                      economy and the return of prostitution to the streets of Havana, it is
                      hard to avoid the conclusion that a new situation is developing in
                      Cuba, one that may soon lead to an open political crisis.
                      The military leadership, in addition to its worries about the
                      economy, has not forgotten the 1989 trial and execution of Gen.
                      Arnaldo Ochoa Sanchez, a hero of Cuba's wars in Africa. Some
                      well-informed Cubans think that, "at the right moment," military
                      chiefs, in alliance with new political forces, may invite Castro to
                      step down and accept an "honorary chairmanship" of the nation as a
                      step toward a form of democracy. It is impossible to predict what
                      would happen if such a situation developed. A chairmanship may be
                      an acceptable "exit strategy," but no U.S. policies should be
                      planned on such an assumption.
                      If a military-Christian alliance were to form a transition government,
                      its key figure might be Ricardo Alarcon, the chairman of the now
                      rubber-stamp National Assembly, former foreign minister and
                      former ambassador to the United Nations. He is one of Castro's
                      closest advisors and is generally liked. Alarcon's military partner, as
                      a coequal, might be Gen. Rosales del Toro, popular among Cuban
                      civilians and soldiers. It also happens that the general is well
                      acquainted with a number of U.S. generals and admirals from the
                      protracted negotiations for the liquidation of Cuba's armed forces in
                      the war in Angola and, later, through visits by important retired U.S.
                      commanders he invited to Havana.
                      The third key player in a transition regime might be Vice President
                      Carlos Lage Avila, the economic czar. He knows major U.S.
                      business and banking figures as a result of their visits to Havana and
                      his attendance at the World Economic Forum annual conference in
                      Davos, Switzerland.
                      With such a team in power, Cuba's economy could significantly
                      improve. Given the country's natural wealth--sugar, nickel, some
                      petroleum, famous cigars and its potential for high food-stuff
                      production--the island would immediately attract major foreign
                      investors. With a solidly educated and skilled work force, Cuba
                      could reconstruct its economy better and faster than most of
                      Eastern Europe.
                      Forty years after the victory of Castro's socialist revolution, the
                      Cuba he will leave as his heritage could well be a capitalist dream.
                      Castro has brought Cuba literacy, much technical expertise,
                      impressive public-health structures--and an absolute conviction that
                      socialism is not the wave of the future or the present. Instead, clean,
                      modern capitalism and a free market, plus democracy, is what his
                      nation needs today. Adios, comandante?
                                              - - -

                      Tad Szulc Is the Author of "John Paul Ii: the Biography" and
                      "Fidel: a Critical Portrait."

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