By Anthony Boadle
Reuters

HAVANA (Reuters) - Whether or not ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro reappears in public this week at his 80th birthday celebration, a successor government led with stealth by his brother Raul appears to be firmly in place.

For four months since the Cuban leader underwent emergency surgery and turned over power temporarily, his designated heir and long-serving defense minister has run the country with few speeches and less fanfare.

Ordinary Cubans have seen little of low-key Raul Castro other than fleeting glimpses of his speeding motorcade of new BMWs.

Government sources say the acting president has been very active holding dozens of meetings, strengthening the ruling Communist Party and getting involved in areas of policy that were his brother's domain, such as the economy.

Shocked by video footage of a frail Fidel Castro last month, many Cubans now doubt the aging "comandante" struck by an undisclosed illness will return to anything but a symbolic leadership role.

"It's utopian to believe Fidel will return to govern. You saw the difficulty he had walking," said a University of Havana psychology student who asked not to be named.

Their hopes for economic relief in the Western Hemisphere's only Communist society are now pinned on Raul Castro, who in the past backed reforms allowing private initiative to flourish.

SMOOTH SUCCESSION

Foreign analysts agree a thus-far smooth succession has begun, though they are not certain where it will take Cuba.

"Raul is firmly in charge, but he has not shown his hand yet," said Hal Klepak, a history professor at the Royal Military Institute of Canada and author of a book on the Cuban military.

Fidel Castro is expected to make at least a brief appearance at a military parade on Saturday marking the 50th anniversary of the day he landed in eastern Cuba to start a guerrilla movement that seized power in the 1959 revolution.

"It makes little difference if Fidel shows up or not. The succession has begun," said an Asian diplomat in Havana.

"Many people got it wrong. They thought Cuba would fall apart. But Cubans are not pushing for political change. They want more cheese and ham."

Raul Castro is widely believed to admire China's economic model of capitalist growth under continued Communist rule, but he has not given any indication that reform is on the way.

His first moves have been in the opposite direction, continuing a drive against corruption that has landed managers of state companies in jail and passing measures for stricter discipline in the work place.

Analysts say it is unlikely Raul Castro will introduce reforms while his brother is still alive and able to veto them, and while he feels the threat of U.S. destabilization is real.

"We cannot forget for one moment that we face a very powerful enemy that is capable of resorting to any means to achieve its goal of wiping the Revolution from the face of the Earth so that not a single trace is left," he said in a September 27 speech to workers.

Soviet-era MiG fighters and tanks will take part in Saturday's parade, the first in a decade in Havana's Revolution Square, to show Washington that Cuba can still defend itself despite cutting the size of its armed forces by 80 percent in recent years, Klepak said.

Analysts say the parade also will serve as a warning to Cubans, whose loyalty to Raul Castro is not the same as for his brother and could falter if he cannot improve their living standards.

The average Cuban makes just $15 a month and struggles to get by despite receiving such things as food rations and free health care.

(Additional reporting by Rosa Tania Valdes)

© 2006 Reuters