Analysis: Russia's Cuba spy dilemma
MOSCOW, Russia --Russia says closing its Cuban radar post will save
more than
$200 million a year in rent. But defence experts say it is not money
that led to the decision.
Just last year Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the radar station,
telling its
workers how important it was.
"At that time, financial reasons did not make him say the station should
be closed.
Now he's saying it. That's why I think it's more a financial cover
for a purely
political decision," Ivan Safranchuk of the Center For Defense Information
told
CNN.
A Kremlin source told CNN that political considerations played a role
in shutting the
Lourdes, Cuba, post -- used for almost 40 years to spy on America --
and the radar
station at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, another key Soviet-era ally.
Several experts told the Reuters news agency that the monetary figures
were
notional because Cuba was paid for the base in barter -- mainly spare
parts for its
dilapidated Soviet-era military machine and oil.
Instead, analysts say the decision signals Putin's readiness to ignore
military hawks
and forge closer ties with Washington.
"It is the first real step toward a real partnership with the U.S.,"
said independent
military expert Alexander Golts. "If you wanted a symbol of the Cold
War, it was
Lourdes.
"I think it is a clear signal to the U.S. that Russia is changing its
position, that we are
true allies. It is a very important signal which continues this shift
of Mr. Putin
toward a clear partnership with the West," Golts told Reuters.
Added Pavel Felgenhauer, another independent defence expert: "This is
a real change
in Russian strategic posture, one of the real significant ones after
the withdrawal of
Russian troops from Europe.
"Putin is saying to the Russian military: Forget about the United States
and get down
to the business of putting things in order in your own house," Felgenhauer
told
Reuters.
"It's preposterous to spend a lot of money in eavesdropping on the United
States
when you can't win a war in Chechnya," he said, referring to Russia's
battle to
restore its rule in the rebel province.
Putin's decision came on the eve of the APEC summit in Shanghai and
a meeting
with U.S. President George W. Bush, who hailed the move as "another
indication
that the Cold War is over... President Putin understands that Russia
and America are
no longer adversaries."
Putin is actively supporting the U.S.-led international coalition against
terrorism,
letting U.S. aircraft use Russian air space for humanitarian flights
to Afghanistan and
clearing the way for former Soviet republics in Central Asia to offer
their air bases to
U.S. forces.
Vladimir Lukin, a senior lawmaker and former Russian ambassador to Washington,
told NTV television that Russia's decision to close the Cuba and Vietnam
posts
should be reciprocated. Moscow is pushing for debt rescheduling and
Western
support for its attempt to join the World Trade Organisation.
While the decision could win Putin points internationally, especially
with the United
States, some observers predict he could run into domestic trouble for
his decision.
Vadim Solovyov, managing editor of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta Military
Review, told
Reuters: "I think the majority of the higher echelons of power do not
support the
president" in his overtures to the West.
"They would like a tougher line to achieve more concessions from the
American side
on resolving problems of strategic national defense," a reference to
U.S. missile
defense plans hitherto opposed by Moscow.
Russia's withdrawal from the Vietnam base also will curb the navy's
aspirations to
play a strategic role in Asia.
Putin softened Wednesday's news by announcing more military funding.
But
whether he can take with him his hawkish Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov
-- a close
ally and fellow St. Petersburg native -- remains to be seen.
"Any further development in the partnership with the West moves us slowly
to the
underlying contradictions between Mr. Putin and those he thought were
his closest
allies," analyst Golts said.
Russia's decision has already met with anger from Cuba, which said Moscow
did
not have its permission to close the Lourdes station. Havana said the
closure would
pose a "grave risk" to Cuba's security and amounted to a "special present"
to the
United States.
But Moscow dismissed the criticism, saying the move was made only after
long
talks with Havana and that it shouldn't have come as a surprise to
Cuba's leadership.
By contrast, Vietnam said Russia's withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay was
by mutual
agreement and that Hanoi would use the facility for its own "socio-economic
development objectives."
-- CNN Moscow Bureau Chief Jill Dougherty contributed to this report.