By Robert Windrem
               NBC NEWS PRODUCER
 
               NEW YORK, April 12 —  Cuban-American exile leaders — and many Republicans in Congress —
               believe that no Cuban, including Juan Miguel Gonzalez, could withstand the blandishments of
               a suburban American lifestyle, that he and all other Cubans would gladly trade their
               “miserable” lives in Cuba for the prosperity of the United States — if only given the chance.
               Witness House Minority Leader Dick Armey’s invitation to Gonzalez, offering him a tour of a
               local supermarket. But U.S. intelligence suggests otherwise.
 
               THE CIA has long believed that while 1 million to 3 million Cubans would leave the island if they had the
               opportunity, the rest of the nation’s 11 million people would stay behind.
                    While an extraordinarily high number, there are still 8 million to 10 million Cubans happy to remain
               on the island.
                     Between 1959, when Castro took power, and 1962, about 215,000 Cubans — many of them middle
               class — joined 124,000 Cubans estimated to already be living in the United States.
                     In 1980, the Mariel boatlift brought another 125,000 refugees to Florida. Castro opened up the port
               of Mariel to allow the departure of convicted criminals and mental patients along with others who wanted to
               leave, leading to a tightening of U.S. policy.

                     New waves of Cuban refugees reached American shores in the mid-1990s as the Cuban
               economy continued to deteriorate. Thousands headed for the Florida coast aboard makeshift rafts were
               plucked from the ocean or sent to camps at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo. The United States agreed in
               September 1994 to accept a minimum of 20,000 Cubans a year. By 1998, the number of Cuban-Americans
               living in the United States was estimated at more than 1,400,000.

                    The CIA believes there are many reasons Cubans are content to remain in their homeland. Some don’t
               want to be separated from home, family and friends. Some fear they would never be able to return, and still
               others just fear change in general. Officials also say there is a reservoir of loyalty to Fidel Castro and, as in
               the case of Juan Miguel Gonzalez, to the Communist Party.

                    U.S. officials say they no longer regard Cuba as a totalitarian state with aggressive policies toward its people,
              but instead an authoritarian state, where the public can operate within certain bounds — just not push the envelope.
                    More important, Cuban media and Cuban culture long ago raised the banner of nationalism above that of
              Marxism.
                    The intelligence community says the battle over Elian has presented Castro with a “unique opportunity” to
              enhance that nationalism.
                    There is no indication, U.S. officials say, of any nascent rebellion about to spill into the streets, no great
              outpouring of support for human rights activists in prison. In fact, there are fewer than 100 activists on the island
              and a support group of perhaps 1,000 more, according to U.S. officials.
 
                    No doubt, they say, continuing hardship — and an increasingly fragile infrastructure — could lead to
              demonstrations at some point, but there have been no such protests since the riots of Aug. 4, 1994, when 30,000
              people gathered in the streets of Havana, frightening Cuban officials and shocking U.S. intelligence.
                   Officials say they are unsure of how Castro will use a victory in the Elian crisis to enhance his position, but they
              have no doubt he will try.
 
                    Robert Windrem is an investigative producer for NBC News.