Planning for a post-Castro Cuba

By TRACEY EATON and RICARDO CHAVIRA / The Dallas Morning News

Last in a series

HAVANA – Not that long ago, it was taboo to speak of life in Cuba after Fidel Castro. Many Cubans wouldn't even say "when Castro dies," preferring the much
more subtle phrasing, "when Fidel ceases to exist physically."

Now, though, the 76-year-old Cuban leader himself has begun planning for the post-Castro era and hopes for a legacy that strengthens the utopian ideals of the
1959 revolution, U.S. and Cuban analysts say.

The nation he envisions is one that is strong, sovereign and safe from foreign interference, especially by the United States. He wants a country that reaches out to the
world, inviting tourism and trade. He has spoken of a place of social justice, where people hold tight to their politics, culture and education, above all else.

Skeptics don't envision such a rosy future. More than four decades of socialism drove Cuba into ruin, they say, and it will take years of reconstruction to bring it
even close to Western standards.

"The Cubans committed a vast historical error in 1959 and must now pay for it," said Mark Falcoff, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington,
D.C., and author of the upcoming book, Cuba the Morning After: Normalization and its Discontents.

"Cuba has so many problems I wouldn't know where to begin," Mr. Falcoff said. "The country no longer has anything the world needs or wants. Sugar is a drug on
the market, and Cuba is slowly pulling out of the business. The entire private sector has been destroyed, and with it, the culture of work, savings and effort."

One of the biggest challenges will be repairing the island's infrastructure, in terrible shape after 43 years of neglect.

To do so, one Cuban economist said, the government would need at least a 20 percent increase in foreign investment and sustained annual growth of 8 percent to 10
percent.

But that isn't happening. And unless it does – or there's a radical change, like a massive infusion of money from the United States – Cuba will forever be playing
catch-up, he said.

A State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity said that in the post-Castro era, U.S. aid to Cuba would range from $4 billion to $8 billion during the first six years. That estimate is based on a report prepared during the Clinton administration.

Some analysts say that level of aid wouldn't be enough, noting that the rebuilding of East Germany has cost West Germany some half trillion dollars.

On the political front, Cuban officials vow to keep a one-party system even as authoritarian governments go out of style. There were only 26 in the world in 2000, down from 67 in 1985.

Some people say Mr. Castro may simply decide to step down someday. But most call that ridiculous, saying that he'll surely "die with his boots on."

"Only death will separate Castro from his control of the Cuban people," said Arch Kielly, a member of the Cuban-American Military Council in South Florida, a nonprofit group made up of individuals of Cuban origin who have served in the Cuban or U.S. armed forces.

If the Cuban president should die before his brother, Raul Castro, Mr. Kielly said, he expects Raul and his underlings to gain strength. And he predicts that the armed forces "will determine if Cuba remains communist."

Because of that, he said, his 1,000-plus-member group over the last five years has been contacting active and retired Cuban military officers "to convince them that
they have a future in a democratic system."

Some U.S. analysts expect the government to install some form of junta after Fidel Castro's passing. They say they envision Raul Castro as the figurehead, with
someone like Vice President Carlos Lage running day-to-day government operations with the help of an Interior Ministry or military official.

Cuban officials say they have an orderly, legal procedure set up for succession of power. Government leaders also want to ensure that Cuba's national identity,
culture and economic system don't get lost in the shuffle.

Cementing Cuban ideals

So in 2000, the government stepped up its political rallies to reinforce revolutionary ideals. It also launched a national education campaign that teaches everything
from English and French to cooking and history.

It's called "University for Everyone" and it's broadcast on television practically every day; an estimated 1 million Cubans take the English lessons, officials say.

The ambitious crusade gives a glimpse into the kind of country Mr. Castro wants to leave behind.

It underscores his conviction that the island should remain not only socialist, but also increasingly independent.

His supporters say they're inspired by José Marti, one of the country's most revered heroes. He was a poet, statesman and dreamer killed while fighting for Cuban
independence in 1895.

One of Marti's most quoted sayings, now programmed to appear on Chinese-made Panda television sets sold in Cuba, is "ser culto para ser libre," be cultured to be
free.

The idea is that the better educated the populace, the better they'll defend their country and its politics. And that's at the root of Cuba's campaign.

"The battle of ideas," as Mr. Castro calls it.

Whether it will work remains to be seen.

Foreign investment

Cuba is also reaching out to foreign investors, although officials are working to make the economy more self-sufficient.

They want to produce more food and energy, diversify and develop computer software companies, continue biotech research and expand Internet services. Already,
the government has set up computers in 300 community centers where people have free access to the World Wide Web.

Catholic Archbishop Pedro Meurice, who lashed out at the government during Pope John Paul II's visit to Cuba in 1998, said he fears officials aren't doing enough.

People are going hungry, he said.

"If you are looking at the future, you have to worry about undernourished children. Kids don't have adequate nutrition. And undernourished mothers are giving birth to mentally impaired children. We have not had that problem in Cuba in 100 years."

He said he's also seen signs of social tension, recalling what happened when local authorities recently threatened to fine a woman for peddling homegrown vegetables.

Angry neighbors rushed to her aid, screaming, "Let this woman sell!"

The authorities left, unsure what to do, the archbishop said.

Trying to predict Cuba's future, even a mere five years from now, is a virtual cottage industry – the subject of books, articles and countless heated conversations on
both sides of the Florida Straits.

Hot topic

"Since 1992, we have seen more 'transition in Cuba' seminars, panels, lectures and workshops than varieties of Baskin Robbins ice cream," said Nelson Valdes, a
Cuba expert at the University of New Mexico.

The U.S. government awarded $1 million to the University of Miami to come up with a transition plan for Cuba. Researchers are examining ways Cuba could build
democratic institutions and restructure its judicial system, among other things.

American officials are pressing forward with their "people-to-people" program, aimed at encouraging Americans to help ordinary Cubans develop a civil society.

"We are not enemies of the Cuban people, contrary to what the Cuban government says," said Vicki Huddleston, former top U.S. diplomat in Havana.

One certainty is that Cuba will remain inexorably linked to the United States, analysts say. The two countries have long, deep ties. And for Cuba, that is a blessing
and a curse.

On the plus side, Cubans say, the United States could be their biggest ally. It could help rebuild the country's infrastructure. And it could provide trade and millions of tourists per year, transforming the Cuban economy.

"We could be the best of friends," Cuban writer Marta Rojas said.

What Cubans say they fear is that they'll lose their national identity. They don't want their culture homogenized or Americanized. They want to maintain cubanidad – that which is Cuban.

They want to listen to their own music – from Los Van Van to Paulito F.G. They want to worship their own Afro-Cuban gods. And they want to have their own national heroes. Their own sports stars.

American influence

None of that means Cubans can't appreciate Americana, said Ana Rodriguez, a 30-year-old English professor.

She said she's fascinated by American culture, everything from hot dogs to Harrison Ford. She wears Levis and watches American movies.

"I have my favorite actors – Al Pacino, Michael Douglas, Meryl Streep. I love the literature and art from over there, too."

But she loves her country and wouldn't leave it, even though she's twice had the chance to emigrate legally to the United States.

While many Cubans have left the country and more want to follow, most have stayed behind, not knowing what the future holds.

Some are fearless, some afraid.

Over a dinner of chicken, french fries and beans, Cuban film producer Rebeca Lopez recalled two landmark years: 1959, when the rebels took power, and 1989,
when the Soviet Union fell.

"In both years," she said, "we had no idea where we were headed. In 1959, there was a sense of excitement and optimism. In 1989, there was worry and pessimism
because the Soviets had abandoned us.

"Today, we have proven that we can survive with very little. Yet we don't know what's going to happen next year."

Sensing change

Already, Cubans sense change all around them, from the gritty streets of Old Havana where workers renovate old buildings to the manicured lawns of Miramar,
where new hotels are going up.

They see shiny BMWs cruise along Havana's Malecón, speeding past lumbering '59 Chevrolets.

And they know more change is coming.

But they don't know when it will come – or where it will lead.

U.S. officials say they are convinced that if there were a true free flow of information in and out of the island, many Cubans would gradually decide they don't want
socialism.

Being cultured to be free goes both ways, the Americans say. If Cubans, they explain, really had a full education, if they had access to the Internet, network
television, and any book they wanted to read, they would soon be protesting their government's denial of many basic universal rights, including freedom of
expression.

Cuban officials say they wish the Americans would leave them to choose their own path.

"Maybe we do have crazy ideas," said a Cuban intelligence agent, at an open-air restaurant in Havana. "But we're only trying to do something different, something
that helps all people, something that will help our children."

A senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity said Mr. Castro has commissioned a group of intellectuals to work on his legacy and "make sure he
outlives even Marti and is as big in the aftermath as Napoleon."

And the Cuban leader has reportedly ordered government ministers and other top officials to head for their homes and await word from Raul Castro in the event of
his death.

That claim couldn't be independently verified. One Cuban official said he had never heard of it.

Said the American official: "For Castro, the transition began long ago. They're in the fine-tuning stages, preparing for the inevitable: for the biological clock to stop
clicking."

Staff writer Alfredo Corchado in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.