BY LESLEY CLARK

If, as expected, the Obama administration lifts travel restrictions on Cuban Americans this week to allow them to freely visit Cuba, it would mark the most significant overture toward the island nation by an American president in decades.

The advantages for Cuban Americans eager to visit family members on the island more frequently are obvious -- as are the benefits for Cuba's cash-starved government: hundreds of millions of dollars in additional income yearly from exiles visiting family members and dropping money on flights, lodging, meals and gifts for relatives.

But the gain for the administration -- and President Barack Obama's campaign pledge to bring ``libertad'' to Cubans on the island -- may be some time coming, if at all. As 10 other American presidents have discovered, the Castro regime is not interested in relaxing its grip on power.

Experts on Cuba-U.S. relations say pressure on the Obama administration from Latin America and Europe to bring Cuba in from the cold, combined with congressional efforts to ease sanctions and Havana's storied resistance to the United States, may lead Raúl Castro's government to consider itself in a position of strength.

Yet Obama represents a potential challenge for a Cuban regime headed by white septuagenarians. The majority of Cuba's population is black or of mixed race, and the young U.S. president is popular among everyday Cubans, which may prod Havana into acknowledging, however slightly, his gesture.

''There is a concern [among Cuban leaders] that if they don't respond somehow to Obama's overture, it will be seen as a slight,'' said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. ``The president is talking about talking to everyone, so they can't be entirely recalcitrant. They'll play the game a little bit.''

NO GRAND MOVE

Yet, Suchlicki and other Cuba watchers believe that Havana is unlikely to reciprocate with any grand move, beyond perhaps releasing a few political prisoners or shedding some of the bureaucracy it imposes on Cuban Americans traveling to the island. Changing Cuba's economic and political system has long been a nonstarter.

''So, the question is, is the U.S. going to be satisfied with token gestures, or do they want more?'' Suchlicki said. ``We are dealing with a hardened dictatorship. They're not going to step down for Obama.''

Criticized by his rivals during the presidential campaign for suggesting that he would meet with Raúl Castro without preconditions, Obama pledged during a campaign speech in Miami to focus his Cuba policy on libertad -- freedom.

''The road to freedom for all Cubans must begin with justice for Cuba's political prisoners, the right of free speech, a free press, freedom of assembly, and it must lead to elections that are free and fair,'' he said then. ``That is my commitment.''

Obama is widely expected this week to lift the remaining restrictions on Cuban family travel and remittances to the island. Asked what the White House expects in return, a State Department spokeswoman said the administration ``hope[s] to see evidence that the government of Cuba has committed itself to addressing disparities among its citizens in the enjoyment of human rights and economic opportunities.''

One unpredictable factor may be the resurgence of Fidel Castro, said Brian Latell, a senior research associate at UM's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. The aging leader met at his home last week with a delegation of black U.S. lawmakers and proclaimed himself interested in helping Obama succeed.

''Fidel is active again, and he is definitely a player in this mix,'' said Latell, a former Cuba analyst for the CIA. ''On issues of history that are important to him, he is going to continue to interfere in policymaking.'' And, Latell suggested, ``it's probably naive to say he'd like to go into history with a settled relationship with the U.S.''

But Cuba's ultimate reward for cooperation could be considerable, from the end of the U.S. ban that prevents any Americans -- not just Cuban Americans -- from visiting the island, to the biggest prize of all: the lifting of the 47-year-old trade embargo.

Mauricio Claver-Carone, a leading lobbyist for keeping the embargo in place as an incentive for change, said the Cuban regime's response to any move to ease travel restrictions will depend on how the Obama administration presents the changes.

If the White House wants ''to change policy just to change policy, the regime is going to become emboldened and believe it can continue repressing its people,'' he said. ``President Obama has said his policy is going to be guided by libertad. That is his standard and his litmus test. If he ignores the dissidents and pro-democracy, he's failed that test and the regime will feel rewarded.''

`THE OBAMA FACTOR'

Some Cuba watchers who favor increased engagement, including the Cuban American National Foundation, are calling on Obama to do more -- to provide direct aid to dissidents on the island and engage in ''targeted'' diplomatic efforts, including resumption of migration talks that the George W. Bush administration suspended in 2004.

''At this stage, we should take advantage of what I call the Obama factor, that the Cuban people have tremendous empathy for Obama,'' said foundation President Francisco ''Pepe'' Hernández. ``We are convinced change is not going to come from the top, but we cannot sit back and wait for Raúl Castro to die or change his mind.''

The two countries have common ground to discuss immigration, drug trafficking and counterterrorism efforts, said Robert Pastor, an American University professor who served as Latin America specialist on President Jimmy Carter's National Security Council.

''But getting beyond that is more difficult,'' he said. ``If we start addressing human rights and democracy, if we start by making conditions contingent on internal changes in Cuba, that would prove to be a cul-de-sac.''

Pastor suggested that allowing Cuban-American travel to the island is likely to be ``perceived in Cuba as actions related to Americans, not Cubans, and I don't think one is likely to see much of a response on their part.''

But Pastor and others suggest that the easing of restrictions could reduce the tension in a relationship that Pastor says has long been ``characterized by shouting past each other.''

The last president to try a grand gesture to Cuba was Carter, who dropped restrictions on travel to Cuba in the late 1970s and sought to resume talks with Havana. The efforts ended badly, when Fidel Castro unleashed a boatlift that sent 125,000 Cubans to South Florida.

But William LeoGrande, dean of the School of Public Affairs at American University, suggests that Obama might benefit from a changing globe.

''In the 1970s, Cuba was a military partner and ally of the Soviet Union and the Cold War was still on. Cuba was abroad in Africa in ways we regarded as a threat to national security,'' LeoGrande said. ``That doesn't exist anymore. Today it's a Caribbean island.''